Mozambique is set to hold crucial elections this week, as nearly 17 million voters cast their ballots for a new president, members of parliament, and provincial assemblies. The election, scheduled for Wednesday, takes place against the backdrop of a prolonged jihadist insurgency in the resource-rich northern province of Cabo Delgado and a devastating drought that has left millions hungry.
With current President Filipe Nyusi completing his two-term limit, the election brings hope for a leader who can restore peace in a region ravaged by violence for almost seven years. The candidates have focused their campaigns on addressing the insurgency, though none have yet presented a concrete plan to end it.
Since 2017, Mozambique has been battling militants affiliated with the Islamic State, who have terrorized communities in Cabo Delgado through brutal attacks, including beheadings. This ongoing conflict has forced over 1.3 million people to flee their homes, according to the United Nations. While some 600,000 have returned, many have found their communities in ruins, with homes, schools, churches, and other vital infrastructure destroyed.
The major candidates have campaigned extensively in the northern and central provinces, which hold significant voter populations. Daniel Chapo, representing the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo), has centered his message on restoring peace to Cabo Delgado and rebuilding its shattered infrastructure. “The first objective is to end terrorism and return peace. Peace is essential for development,” Chapo declared at a rally in Pemba, Cabo Delgado’s capital.
Frelimo, which has governed Mozambique since independence in 1975, is widely expected to maintain its grip on power. However, opposition candidates Lutero Simango of the Democratic Movement of Mozambique and independent Venacio Mondlane have also promised to tackle the region’s violence. Mondlane has made bold claims, pledging to end both the insurgency and kidnappings within a year of taking office.
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Beyond security, corruption and poverty have dominated the election discourse. Mozambique continues to grapple with the fallout of the “tuna bond” scandal, where secret loans for government-controlled fishing companies were misused, plunging the country into a $2 billion debt crisis. Additionally, Mozambique faces severe drought conditions worsened by the El Niño weather phenomenon, with 1.3 million people facing critical food shortages, according to the UN World Food Program.
The election will also be scrutinized for its fairness. Local elections last year were marred by allegations of vote-rigging and fraud, particularly in favor of Frelimo, sparking violent protests. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has deployed a team of 52 election observers to monitor the process, calling for neutrality from Mozambique’s electoral authorities.
Political analysts suggest that despite the challenges, Frelimo’s established presence and influence will likely secure its victory. “We would need something drastic to happen for Frelimo to lose these elections,” said political expert Dercia Alfazema.
Whoever emerges victorious will inherit a country facing deep-rooted issues—ranging from conflict to economic instability. As Borges Nhamire of the Institute for Security Studies pointed out, “The next president will face a daunting task, taking over at a time of war and hardship. It’s a difficult transition for any leader.”
