In a move that signals a deepening foothold in West Africa, Russia has agreed to ramp up its military support for Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—three nations now under military rule and grappling with escalating violence and Islamist insurgencies.
The three countries, which formed a joint defense pact last year following a wave of coups, have now secured an agreement with Moscow for the supply of weapons and military training, according to statements from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The new pact comes as the region’s security landscape continues to spiral, with deadly attacks from groups linked to both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State becoming more frequent.
Lavrov noted that Russia would deploy its existing network of military instructors already stationed in the Sahel to assist the newly formed joint force. “Our specialists can help develop and arm those forces with specific weapons and machinery,” he said during a press briefing.
This development highlights a broader strategy by Moscow: using the political vacuum and instability across the Sahel as an opportunity to expand its influence, especially in countries where traditional Western alliances have frayed. Since 2021, mercenaries from the Wagner Group—now operating under Russia’s Africa Corps after the death of its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin—have been active in Mali, and later in Niger and Burkina Faso.
Russia’s growing military presence in the region has not gone unnoticed. Mali’s Foreign Minister, Abdoulaye Diop, recently described Russia as a “permanent and reliable partner” in the country’s ongoing battle against terrorism. But not everyone shares that enthusiasm.
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According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the presence of Russian-linked forces has coincided with a worrying spike in violence. In just the first half of 2024, reported fatalities across the three countries soared to 7,600—a staggering 190% increase from 2021, before the juntas seized power.
While the new alliance with Russia offers the promise of better-equipped forces, many fear it may only entrench the current regimes and further destabilize the region. Civilian casualties have continued to rise, and questions remain over whether Russian involvement is focused on regional stability or securing Moscow’s own geopolitical and economic interests.
The United States and France, both of which previously maintained military and security partnerships with these countries, have largely scaled back their presence, citing concerns over governance and human rights. This has left a vacuum that Russia appears eager to fill.
For the people of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the shifting alliances offer little immediate comfort. Armed attacks on villages, displacement, and economic hardship remain daily realities. As Russia tightens its grip in the Sahel, the international community watches closely—unsure whether this new chapter will bring the stability the region so desperately needs, or further entrench the chaos already underway.
