South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) commemorates its 112th anniversary amidst growing uncertainty ahead of what is anticipated to be its toughest national elections since the end of apartheid in 1994. Thousands of party members and supporters will gather at Mbombela Stadium in Mpumalanga province for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s annual address, where he is set to outline the party’s agenda for the upcoming year.
The ANC, historically associated with Nelson Mandela and the fight against racial segregation, now confronts mounting criticism for its perceived failure to deliver essential services to the country’s impoverished Black majority amid worsening economic conditions. With an alarming 32% unemployment rate, including 60% among young people, the ANC faces an increasingly disillusioned electorate impatient with unmet promises for a better life.
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Recent polls indicate that the ANC may struggle to secure more than 50% of the electoral vote, a threshold necessary for victory and a potential unprecedented challenge to its three-decade reign. Allegations of corruption involving party leaders have further tarnished its reputation, adding to the challenges posed by economic hardships and frequent power blackouts.
Political analyst Dirk Kotze warns that the ANC’s primary threat lies in the growing public distrust, emphasizing that this election could be the toughest the party has ever contested. Former President Jacob Zuma’s endorsement of the newly-formed political party, Umkhonto we Sizwe, introduces an additional factor that may divert support away from the ANC, echoing historical instances where breakaway parties eroded the ruling party’s electoral base.
Kotze highlights concerns about Umkhonto we Sizwe’s potential impact in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s stronghold, suggesting that the ANC might dip below the critical 50% mark in this province. Zuma, currently on trial for a 1999 weapons deal, remains a divisive figure with a significant support base.
As the ANC navigates these challenges, the possibility of entering a coalition agreement with opposition parties looms if it fails to secure the required majority. While the election date is yet to be announced, the period between May and August is anticipated for this critical political showdown.
